From the Radio Free Michigan archives ftp://141.209.3.26/pub/patriot If you have any other files you'd like to contribute, e-mail them to bj496@Cleveland.Freenet.Edu. ------------------------------------------------ INTELLIGENCE DIGEST - 17 February 1995 by Joseph de Courcy RUSSIA ON THE ROAD TO RUIN ========================== Last week we highlighted the political problems Russia faces, both internally and externally, as a result of the move to crush Chechnya's independence. These problems are compounded by an escalating economic crisis. Since the beginning of the Gorbachev reforms we have warned subscribers that there was only the smallest possibility that Russia would make a complete conversion from autocracy to Western-style capitalist democracy. What little chance there was has all but disappeared. Now the decision for Russia is whether to continue its decline into oblivion or to re-establish itself as an economically-backward autocracy. The option of becoming a fully-fledged member of the Western family does not exist. The economic crisis in Russia is reflected in a monthly inflation rate that has rocketed from around 5% last August to 17.8% in January. That equates to an annual inflation rate of over 700%. All attempts to rein in inflation founder on popular demand for more wages (the Federation Council has just passed a law - which might be vetoed by President Yeltsin - that will more than double the minimum wage) and on the inability of the government to manage its own finances. Moscow is negotiating a $6.2bn stand-by loan with the IMF. This will be forthcoming only if Moscow can control the budget deficit, but that is a virtual impossibility with tax receipts running at under 40% of the budgeted figure. The prospects for 1995 are further clouded by the racing certainty of a major crisis in agriculture. Some 80% of all farm machinery is in need of repairs which the farms cannot carry out because of the delay in the payment of subsidies. During January, meat and butter output was down by over 40% on last year, and sources say that Russia's 1995 harvest could also be 40% down on 1994. (Much is being made of this crisis in agriculture by Agrarian Union. Starodubstev was one of the group that tried to overthrow Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991.) To crown it all, life expectancy in Russia is now just 65 years (it might be as low as 64.1 years according to some calculations), four years lower than it was at the beginning of the decade. All this is matched by a continuing decline in the morale of the Russian military, particularly following the difficulties in suppressing Chechen independence. President Yeltsin's regime no longer has any sense of direction beyond day-to-day survival; and although Yeltsin and his entourage remain shrewd political infighters who were trained in the hard school of Soviet Communist-Party politics, plots are being hatched. YELTSIN OR RUSSIA The choice, many influential power-brokers (and power-seekers) now believe, is between Yeltsin and Russia. Most now believe that what the West thinks is of little importance. Subscribers should not be surprised to see decisive action taken in the not-too-distant future. However, if this assessment is wrong and Yeltsin's political shrewdness (which should not be underestimated) sees him through to the end of his term, Russia's economic and political decline will only accelerate, further IMF loans notwithstanding. Source: Joseph de Courcy Intelligence Digest 17 February 1995 Intelligence Internationale Ltd. The Stoneyhill Centre Brimpsfield, Gloucester, GL4 8LF, UK :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: :: ANNOUNCEMENT: The SAMSBEST archives are now available for ftp :: :: at zilker.net cd /pub/jwr/samsbest. They may be read on the WWW :: :: at gopher://oak.zilker.net/11/pub/jwr/samsbest. :: :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ------------------------------------------------ (This file was found elsewhere on the Internet and uploaded to the Radio Free Michigan archives by the archive maintainer. All files are ZIP archives for fast download. E-mail bj496@Cleveland.Freenet.Edu)