From: Phil Jones To: Tom Wigley Subject: Re: paleoT Date: Fri Jul 15 11:06:31 2005 Tom, This Briffa series is just a three site average (trees from Tornetrask, Polar Urals and Taimyr) - all in northern Eurasia. It is therefore for a limited region and is likely just the summer, whereas some of the others have regressed on annual T for the NH (or north of 20N). Of these 3, the first two are in most of the other series (Esper, Crowley, Jones, Mann) and also for HF in Moberg. Not sure whether Taimyr is in any of the others. Esper uses a different standardization approach, but should have most of the same trees, but only TRW. The others use our reconstructions which have MXD is as well. Have you tried these correlations after extracting the LF trends (say residuals from a 30 or 50 yr filter)? Would expect some of them to be much, much lower. Keith's reconstruction that would be much better is the one that goes back to only about 1400. Do you have this? Go here [1]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html then click on paleo data, then on obtaining and look for Keith's - it says 600 years in the title. You can get the data. Cheers Phil At 21:57 14/07/2005, you wrote: Phil, I eventually refiltered all the paleo data and have compared these with likewise filtered MAGICC output. Very interesting results. Can you comment, off the record, on Keith's paleo series. Here are correlations of individual series against the 7 series average. (Different series lengths, but essentially same results over common lengths.) SERIES 1000-1610 1610-1995 1000-1995 Briffa -.272 .262 .207 Esper .583 .917 .687 Crowley .879 .946 .902 Jones .773 .917 .861 Mann .760 .856 .822 M&J-NH .929 .965 .936 Moberg .904 .856 .871 Correlations with the climate model are not the same -- but Briffa is again the clear outlier. Why? Tom. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- References 1. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html